#1 NFL Betting Strategy – Money/Bankroll Management When you are betting on the NFL season you will want to set aside a certain amount of money to bet with that you can afford to lose, known as your 'bankroll'. I suggest you either make a weekly bankroll, monthly bankroll, or full season bankroll (I. NFL consensus picks and public bets info is a must-have tool for any true NFL betting fan who is looking to win or cover the spread each week of the season. ActionRush.com provides NFL public betting trends on the games each night courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, FanDuel and William Hill. Looking to parlay correlated results, large moneyline favorites, and utilizing teasers are all additional tactics to incorporate into an NFL parlay betting strategy. Keep in mind that although parlay betting has its place, it should not be looked at as a prime means of making a profit.
Estimated Read Time: 5 minutes- It will break down the basics of NFL betting, from various types of bets, to strategy, to tips on how to predict trends and think independently. If you heed this advice and weigh your options and bankroll carefully, you could turn a consistent profit throughout the 2020 NFL season.
- How to read NFL Las Vegas Money Line Odds. In this example, the Cleveland Browns were listed as a 5.5-point favorite against the Tennessee Titans. Looking at this from a money-line standpoint, Cleveland is a -245 favorite to win the game straight-up, compared to Tennessee at +210 to win the contest. Cleveland -245 (Bet $100 to win $40.80).
See All Guides
Betting on the NFL isn't necessarily easy, but making smarter bets is always possible for those motivated to learn a bit of new strategy.
Try these nine thoughtful tips when wagering at online football betting sites and watch your bankroll grow.
1. Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart
It may sound obvious, but avoiding emotion when wagering remains a challenge for many bettors. We all have our personal biases. Whether it's a favorite team or one we despise, putting aside these preferences isn't easy.
But here's the thing: becoming more objective towards NFL betting online is literally the easiest way to make smarter bets. It doesn't require a detailed strategy on mathematical analysis, it just requires common sense.
Cheering on your favorite team (at least) 16 times per year is a lot of fun, but losing money in the process is not. To become a smarter bettor, be aware of your biases and try to avoid decisions based solely on favoritism.
2. Pay Attention to Where the Game Is Played
Home-field advantage matters, and it matters more at certain stadiums. For example, the New England Patriots, went 42-6 straight-up (32-14-2 ATS) at home from 2014-2018. The Seahawks also perform exceptionally well in Seattle: they are 92-31 at home since 2003.
But they're not the only two teams with such an advantage. Do your research by comparing each team's home vs. away record when handicapping for home team advantage.
West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they're used to.
There are also teams who don't travel well. From 2014-2018 (a five-season span), the San Francisco 49ers were a terrible 9-31 on the road, third-worst in the league. They weren't much better against the spread, going 16-22-2 (fourth-worst in the NFL). The Texans also struggled to cover the spread on the road in 2016, posting a 2-6 record ATS.
Knowing where and when the teams played the previous week is also an important factor to consider. Some teams suffer from real disadvantages. West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they're used to.
Lastly, certain dome (indoor) teams can struggle to perform outdoors. For example, Drew Brees' passer rating drops from 102.5 in a dome to 90.3 when playing outdoors. And this is all extremely useful information for bettors.
3. Know the Individual Matchups
Football is often referred to as the ultimate team sport, but there are certain one-on-one matchups that can dramatically affect the outcome of a game.
For example, a weak offensive tackle should not be expected to perform well against the premier edge-rushers in the league. Pay attention to major skill discrepancies between players who will be going head-to-head.
Coaches are perhaps the most significant head-to-head matchups that bettors should consider. Every coach uses recurring strategies that fare very well against some opponents and flop against others. Coaches get to know each other's approaches to the game, and some are better at responding to these strategic considerations.
A great example of this is Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick. The Patriots have been dominant since Belichick has been steering the ship, but he was 2-5 when coaching against Coughlin following the 2018 season.
4. Know More than Just the Trends
When it comes to betting on NFL games, following the trends isn't a bad idea — patterns sometimes provide valuable information. For example, from 2010 to 2018, the Bears went 12-5 ATS when coming off a bye week, while the 49ers, on the other hand, were just 5-11 ATS in that same time frame.
The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers when evaluating statistical trends.
Noticing that a team just scored 49 points the previous week doesn't necessarily mean that their offense is firing on all cylinders. Go back and look at how all the points were scored. Maybe a defensive back fell down to allow a long touchdown pass. Perhaps the defense scored a couple of those touchdowns. Maybe they were just playing the Browns.
The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers.
5. Check the Injury Reports
As we mentioned, football is the ultimate team game, and small changes can throw off the entire unit. Make sure you know which players have missed practice during the week, what their status is for the upcoming game, and what role they play on the team.
Team injury reports can be a little vague, so it's always a good idea to check the Twitter accounts of beat-writers for each team. Often, they will provide a little more detail.
6. Take Caution with Divisional Matchups
Teams that play each other twice per season get to know each other very well, and even bad teams tend to dig a little deeper when they are battling a division rival.
Looking to 2016, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers were three of the bottom-four teams in the NFL, but they all posted a 4-2 record ATS within their respective divisions.
Even though one team may appear superior on paper, divisional matchups are often much closer than anticipated. This makes the great choices to bet on the NFL point spread, but they can be risky choices on the moneyline.
7. Don't Fall in Love with Value
Betting the underdog on the moneyline can certainly pay off, but you need to consider why long odds are so long in the first place. Make sure you have very specific reasons and logic behind taking a +800 underdog on the moneyline, because you can be sure the sportsbook used reason and logic to set that moneyline in the first place.
We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events when betting on the NFL.
You also need to be careful when constructing parlays and teasers. Don't load them up with too many events. NFL teams are generally closely-matched compared to other sports, and it's far too difficult to correctly predict the outcome of more than a handful of games. We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events.
Nfl Betting Predictions
8. Monitor the Lines Throughout the Week
Monitoring the betting lines throughout the week is a big part of maximizing your chances. Some online books may provide more favorable NFL odds, and as the week progresses, you may find the odds change.
It's important to keep in mind the influence of public perception here. Popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and New England Patriots will always have loyal supporters betting with their hearts. They're often referred to as public teams, and it's very likely they'll be more heavily favored than the statistics suggest they should be.
Betting Moneyline Nfl
If you're planning on betting against the public, wait around and let emotional bettors drive the odds in your favor. Conversely, if you're planning to bet on a public team, jumping on an early line is likely the best decision.
9. Diversify Your NFL Bets
There is success to be had betting on the moneyline, the spread, and game totals. But to maximize your success, it's crucial to know all the alternative bets you can make.
Many sportsbooks will allow you to bet on alternate spreads or buy and sell points. Instead of settling for a -3.5 spread that makes you a little uncomfortable, you can opt for a -2.5 spread with a more modest payout.
Enjoy the Action this NFL Season
The strategies above are great to keep in mind while wagering this football season, but they're only a start. In the end, finding success is all about putting in the time and effort to research your pick and manage your bankroll effectively.
If you're looking to for more football action than the NFL can provide, open up your Saturdays and take a look at our intro to betting on college football for more helpful tips and tricks.
See All Guides
When you think about sports betting, the first wager type that comes to mind is probably the moneyline. The moneyline bet is a straight-up wager on who wins a game, fight, or any other matchup.
The term ‘moneyline' might sound like a sort of foreign language. That's okay! We were all rookie bettors who had to ask questions at some point.
We'll break down moneyline bets and walk you through everything you need to know about them.
The Moneyline Made Easy
You've already learned how to read and interpret the three types of odds you'll encounter, so let's move onto the elements of sporting events you can bet on.
When making a moneyline bet, you're simply selecting the outright winner of a single game.
When making a fundamental moneyline bet, you're simply selecting the outright winner of a single game. This is the most straightforward bet you can make. There are no other contingencies.
Here's an example of the moneyline bet in action:
To place your bet, all you need to do is click on the moneyline number attached to the team you believe is going to win the game. If you think Anaheim will win, click on the +135. If you like Nashville, click on the -135.
From here, your pick will be added to a bet slip where you be asked to enter the amount you wish to risk on your moneyline wager. So, how can you tell how to calculate your payout on the moneyline?
Breaking Down the Moneyline
The numbers next to each team on the moneyline are American odds which:
- indicate each team's implied probability
- determine how much money you would win, based on your wager.
The team that has a '+' sign on next to their odds is the underdog, while the team with '-' next to their odds number is seen by your sportsbook as the favorite.
In some cases, both teams will have '-' signs next to them. In this case, the team with the number farther from zero should be regarded as the favorite (eg. -120 would be the favorite over -105).
Because the bet will be harder to win, you will always receive a higher payout when you bet the underdog on the moneyline. Of course, the risk of losing such a bet is also substantially higher.
Winning Moneyline Bets
At this stage, you might be wondering how you can win moneyline bets. Let's revisit the Anaheim (+135) vs. Nashville (-135) moneyline example.
Nfl Moneyline Betting Strategy
If you bet $100 on Anaheim at +135 moneyline odds and they win the game, you win $135 for a total payout of $235. On the flip side, you need to successfully wager $135 on Nashville to win $100 for a potential payout of $235.
When it comes to moneyline betting, the lines with a plus symbol tell you the amount of money you'd win on a $100 wager, while odds with the minus sign indicate the amount you need to bet to win $100.
Moneyline wagering is a relatively easy concept to understand once you get the hang of it.
Popular Sports with Moneyline Odds
You can find moneyline line odds for virtually any sport, including some of the following leagues:
- NFL
- NBA
- MLB
- NHL
- UFC
Moneyline odds will look similar across the board. The positive number indicates the betting favorite, and the negative number is assigned to the underdog.
Handicapping your Bet
Handicapping is an important part of strategizing your moneyline bets. If you see moneyline odds for a team, and you believe they have a good chance of winning, then you're already familiar with the concept of handicapping.
Using analytical research, key betting trends, or any other knowledge that might eliminate any guessing in a bet is called handicapping. Handicapping assigns an advantage to a team based on available evidence and statistics rather than a gut instinct.
Beating the oddsmakers is a tough task, but the more research and handicapping you do on betting lines, the better chance you have at padding your bankroll.
Opening/Closing Odds and Line Movement
Online sportsbooks will adjust their moneyline odds as one side gets more of the action from the betting public. This changes the value of your potential return, so it's important to pay attention to line movement and the opening/closing odds.
Let's use the Super Bowl as an example. A team like the Kansas City Chiefs could start as -125 favorites, but as more people bet on them leading up to the Super Bowl, the odds might move to -150 or more. This could have a big impact on your winnings, which is why it's important to find early betting lines that have better value for NFL games.
Experienced sports bettors track the odds very closely, and watching the moneyline is an effective way to gauge what the oddsmakers are thinking. If you find a team you're confident in, and the oddsmakers are moving the lines the other way, then you'll have the edge over the sportsbook if your team wins.
Why Are There Fractions or Decimals on the Moneyline?
This depends on the audience your sportsbook targets. The + and – signs you see are referred to as 'American' odds. As such, American-facing books will almost always represent the moneyline in this format.
Sportsbooks outside of North America sometimes display the moneyline in either a decimal or fractional format. Even so, the moneyline always refers to betting on the winner of the game, regardless of odds format.
If you need a refresher on calculating all types of odds, be sure to check out our guide. This skill is essential to understanding the moneyline and giving you a return on wagers!
Why Is There No Moneyline for My Game?
Sportsbooks don't always offer a moneyline option for a game. Sometimes, they will simply offer totals and spread bets.
For example, many sportsbooks only offer an option to bet on the NFL moneyline if the spread is between 3 and 10 points. If one team is a heavy favorite (and the spread is listed at 14 points or more), many sportsbooks will choose to offer only spread and totals bets. This is an industry-standard, in most cases. However, there are exceptions to this rule at select online sports betting sites.
Other Factors to Consider
Here's a few other things to keep in mind when you're looking at moneyline odds at online betting sites:
- Shop for the best lines – moneyline odds aren't the same at every sportsbook
- Point spread betting – look at other options like betting the point spread if you're on the fence about a moneyline wager
- Watch the vig – sportsbooks include a fee right in the betting lines, and bookmakers create odds that attract wagers on both sides
Get Closer to the Action
Sports betting is the best way to get more involved with your favorite games, and we have all the knowledge you need to wager with confidence. Check out Betting 101 for more guides that can help you drill the fundamentals.
How To Bet Moneyline
